Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 3.273264 3.938058 4.680873 5.569073 6.598723 7.751175 9.134927
2025-03-23 2.306719 3.191082 4.297908 5.768800 7.654027 9.969493 13.006116
2025-03-30 1.663521 2.606418 3.909453 5.803073 8.438627 11.924694 16.821357
2025-04-06 1.239486 2.174247 3.585218 5.800856 9.106803 13.755248 20.657146
2025-04-13 0.945363 1.841639 3.307946 5.774919 9.685781 15.479399 24.491842
2025-04-20 0.819912 1.744395 3.361014 6.237219 11.021836 18.405213 30.311076
2025-04-27 0.681675 1.583581 3.267469 6.429431 11.935597 20.763603 35.480780
2025-05-04 0.581295 1.466207 3.221265 6.682089 12.959954 23.370344 41.237043
2025-05-11 0.473763 1.302351 3.051306 6.675436 13.523422 25.263651 45.993349
2025-05-18 0.368697 1.111198 2.784670 6.435024 13.625809 26.374460 49.532472
2025-05-25 0.280610 0.931185 2.499870 6.103987 13.504470 27.065766 52.391292
2025-06-01 0.227269 0.823347 2.350330 6.023003 13.841405 28.581747 56.766725
2025-06-08 0.179534 0.715938 2.182555 5.885266 14.070559 29.963132 61.096245
2025-06-15 0.161419 0.693443 2.222289 6.225549 15.326998 33.385531 69.394300
2025-06-22 0.135884 0.636285 2.158257 6.310660 16.050847 35.845060 76.090399
2025-06-29 0.112503 0.576395 2.072052 6.326027 16.621639 38.047934 82.455846
2025-07-06 0.092334 0.518977 1.978200 6.304533 17.103656 40.106736 88.680786
2025-07-13 0.087845 0.524778 2.077542 6.805423 18.840679 44.855872 100.437727
2025-07-20 0.077189 0.498397 2.069239 7.013526 19.908666 48.289948 109.802434
2025-07-27 0.069104 0.480147 2.083403 7.286126 21.158859 52.195162 120.337761
2025-08-03 0.057531 0.437787 2.004433 7.279087 21.720763 54.663873 128.107873
2025-08-10 0.044616 0.379075 1.849778 7.020067 21.617685 55.670526 132.930969
2025-08-17 0.033330 0.320243 1.674815 6.663193 21.214459 55.969345 136.283029